franklin appears to be recovering this evening. some of the globals forecasted shear to decrease and they appear to have scored. the mid layer ridge nearby franklin is fluid and will probably result in an erratic path... globals track has been bending left over time and may end up being west of north for a spell.. but it's unlikely franklin will get back to within striking distance of the u.s. coastline. as a parting action it may deepen some now that environmental conditions are improving.. not likely to do more than that.
the wave between 30-35w has me worried. very good signature on this wave, and a development trend seems to be underway. if it develops the scenario most of the globals have for it is a rebuilt ridge near the east coast with a weakness digging behind it over the east atlantic, and another weakness retrograding over the southeast. gfs shows its signature arriving at the southeast u.s. around august 2nd/3rd. the trailing wave near 20w develops on some global runs but turns up near 40w into the eastern weakness (a deep layer cutoff low on several models, the type which may become a hybrid feature in its own right). less significant is the weak wave/trough near 55w currently which is sporadically blowing convection. probably not a development threat as things currently stand.
with the progged weakness in the eastern u.s., wave energy in the nw caribbean will have the tendency to collect, though no model is suggesting more than shortwave induced impulses over land. numerous tropical waves are advancing across africa... the sort of configuration which promises at least a tropical cyclone or two in the deep tropics east of the islands over the next week or two.. and potentially more.
HF 0705z26july