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I'll have to respectfully disagree with JB here. While the front is a rather strong one for this time of year, the southern end is rather diffuse and, given how the air mass is modifying on the southern side of the front, I just can't see anything coming of it. We can see storms form at the tail end of a front, but that's more of a September-November affair than a July/August one...just don't think it'll be strong enough to do it. There's a weak trough tailing from Franklin, but anything in there is going to get caught up in the same flow Franklin will get caught up in and head out to sea. Alex formed offshore similar to that last year -- almost at this very time -- and while I'll go that far as well as say it's a more likely bet than the Gulf scenario, I'm still not too keen on it. The broad area of low-pressure projected across the SE US may help, but I don't see the energy being in the right place for anything to get going. 92L will be one to more impact the US than perhaps 93L -- at least sooner than 93L would -- but I think it's got a longer time ahead of it before it can get going. Like HF mentioned overnight, it's probably the north end that will get its act together, and even then the overall envelope is rather large. It might well get going, but it's a long-term affair. 93L on the other hand has, despite having its convective tops warm overnight, maintained a nice mid-level circulation, one that has some hints of working its way down to the surface in QuikSCAT imagery. While it might have more of a penchant to be a fish spinner than 92L, it's also (in my eyes) a more likely candidate to develop in the short-term. If the convective tops cool later today and the organization is maintained, I still believe we might see something classified by the end of the day tomorrow...or at least sometime Friday. Only time will tell, however...and that goes for all of them. |