I'm not a MET but a scientist nonetheless..The Atlantic Ocean is not only warmer this year but has been warmer, relatively speaking since 1995. We are currently in the warm phase of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) which should last another 10 to 40 years. The North Atlantic ocean periodically alternates between warm and cool phases every two to five decades. The last cool phase lasted from 1970-1995 and there was a general lull in Atlantic Tropical Activity. So over the long term, the entire east coast and FL peninsula will see alot more tropical cyclone activity over the next 20 years or so.

As far as this year, not only are seas surface temps high, but very favorable atmospheric conditions also exist (i.e. low shear environment, lower pressure in the Carribean, no drought in the Sahel region of W Africa, etc.). The Cape Verde season, which usually starts in mid-August, will start earlier this year (now?) and will be quite active with numerous waves rolling off the coast of Africa. So in that respect, I'd tend to agree with Accuweather that the US east coast and FL is more vulnerable than the Gulf Coast. What will be the major player in this years landfalls will be the relative strength and position of the Bermuda High. Last year, this Ridge held strong and was positioned slightly north of the peninsula. This caused Frances and Jeanne to move W-NW into the east coast of FL rather than head north into the Carolinas or NE out to sea. Prior to last year, even though we had one of the most active periods in Atlantic Cyclone History (1995-2003), many of the storms ended up fish spinners because the Bermuda Ridge was not strong and large Troughs of Low Pressure anchored themselves along the east coast & deflected them out to sea.