Quote:
92L is still very broad and disorganized. The leading edge of the wave is located near 16N and 58W with a weak low vortex with it. Also there is more thunderstorm activity with the northern extent near 18.5 and 53 W. Overall its a 1011mb low ( which has been for couple days now). I dont feel there will be a dep until the plane gets in tomorrow or 1 of the 2 vortexs becomes the main low. Models want to show the 1 near 58W as the main center and so do I. If so then its still very weak with the lack of convection. I expect this system overall to continue w-wnw thru the weekend and be near the SE bahamas by Sunday as a tropical storm. Trough coming down off the U.S east coast by then will slow this significantly. After that it there is a split. 40% it could meander up the east coast offshore.30% move out to sea. 30% stay far enough south to miss the trough and continue wnw thru the fla straits by Tuesday.
Again as I said couple days ago, I dont think this will be a TD until Friday. There is no main center of circulation with this yet.
this seems about right scottsvb--i mean the percentages but i think we may have a TD by the close of saturday maybe sunday
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Re: Franklin Continues, Waves Across the Atlantic