Looking at new data coming in and there will be more of a seperation of the trough by sunday into monday over the eastern U.S. Curently the TUTT low over the bahamas will move WNW ( instead of up the east coast) and get into the eastern gulf and absorbed into the trough over the SE U.S. and northern gulf over the weekend. The northern extent over New England down to the midatlantic will move out to sea and be replaced by a ridge over the great lakes. The same time A ridge will build westward from the Atlantic into the Bahamas and Florida by early next week pushing the southern trough over the N gulf to the NW gulf near Tx.
This will up the chances of the possible Tropical system to move westward thru the straits of florida or the peninsula by Tuesday. The ridge should hold on till weds or thurs before a weakness passes again thru the great lakes. This will turn anything in the eastern gulf NW-N by midweek. For Florida and the east coast of the U.S residents, any chance it has to stay out to sea would be determined by where the low does form exactly and how much of a NW movement on its WNW path thru the weekend. If its N of 25 N by 70W by Monday then it could meander till the great lakes trough picks it up. Or if it stays south closer to 22N and 75W by Monday then a path more into the gulf will be expected ( of course ). Anyways thats the scenerio. Chances of Florida and the Gulf 50%, meander off the bahamas 30% and out to sea east of 72W 20% .......................