92L appears to have a bereft of moisture, convection, and is being steered westward under the influence of a large well developed cyclone over the NE Bahamas. A anticyclone is building to the west of 92L and marks the end of the Saharan dust. This will aid in divergence as the outflow jet builds NE of the system. The track of 92L is vague at best, some take the system westward while others turn recurve it, but with the fact that Typhoon Baynan recurved and a ridge east of Hawaii leads me to believe that a more westward track is favored. Also there is a natural bias to recurve anything in the long range by the global’s (gfs,gfdl, and tertiary models). Heat oceanic content is surely suffice to support development, with an area of anomalously warm SSTS centered around 26N 65W ranging from 29.5 C to 31 C (!). Certainly warm. Cyclone phase analysis doesn’t have much to say, with basically a WNW track over the next 48 hours becoming a depression, and organizing into a moderately symmetrical warm core system. Not much different from what we thought. Unfortunately too far out to assume anything, but I still think this will be a more Florida GOM threat then a CV recurver.