Clark
(Meteorologist)
Fri Jul 29 2005 12:30 AM
Re: Franklin Reintensifies, 92L Bears Watching

To answer a few questions...

* Waves behind 92L: the SSTs out there are just marginal, while shear has picked up a little. There is some hint of a little dry air in the region; add all three minor factors together and you get a suppression of the activity...for now. They'll pick up much like 92L did once they get to about 50W, assuming they hold together until then.

* Future paths of 92L and 93L: 92L looks to be one to moreso potentially affect the SE US coast, yes, while 93L looks like it'd head on a more southerly course through the Caribbean. We don't know if either will actually impact land, however. But yes, the threat may be there in a few days down the line.

* 92L organization: it's trying, but the surface reflection and the convection don't quite match up yet. Probably a day or two away from developing...we'll see if the recon flight gets canceled or not. My guess is they'll use the QuikSCAT data from the morning overpass to make that determination (along with satellite imagery, of course).

* FSU model plots are working once again, for those interested or having troubles earlier. A backup of some of the model output can be found at http://met.psu.edu/tropical/tcgengifs/, in case the FSU site is ever down.



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