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Its very hard to pinpoint the exact center of circulation due to the high clouds but there are t-storms near the center now (although weak). My guess its near 17N and 61W near the furthest west blowup of convection and on the south side. It maybe also near 59W...hard to tell. Anyway if the center is there, I would expect the plane to find this a TD by later tomorrow afternoon( Friday) near 64W just east of Puerto Rico, infact many might see the circulation on radar by noon. Of course that is saying its fully closed. Not sure if there is any sw winds yet.....there is S, Se, ENE but Sw we need recon or ship report or island report from down there. Models Ukmet and Nogaps have to correct run on the OZ but still not sure how strong the ridge builds over the Se US by Sunday into Tuesday. Correction ,,,center or vortex found near 16N and 59.5W as of 0600z. Its weak and shallow but there. Currently windshear is preventing this from becoming better organized but its doing it slowly. |