sfc obs out of guadeloupe show weak sw winds... suggests there is a poorly defined closed low pushing into the leeward islands right now. there is more convection near the western, active part of this system now that the large flareup northeast of the actual center has waned some. scott has the state of this thing pretty much on the mark. should continue to take shear, but some ridging is trying to build in near the system... modeling suggests that shear conditions should abate over the weekend. next question is.. does this thing start running over the larger islands or pass north of them. my guess would be north... most models show that.. but the initializations are questionable. do think this will make depression status friday if the convection becomes more concentrated near the center.
other features:
franklin heading out, not showing much inclination to deepen. franklin was only pesky, affecting the bahamas.
93L is still on a low trajectory. a trade wind surge and coincident saharan layer air is digging into this thing from behind.. not conducive for development. should keep it on a low glide towards the caribbean... development chances increase as it gets closer... if this low-amplitude feature can maintain its identity.
wave behind 93L is slightly lower in latitude and roughly in the same state. not going to develop soon.
complex deep layer system in the northeast atlantic is digging in. not much at the surface right now except for troughiness, but globals still showing nontropical low pressure out there. activity here is unlikely.
close-in development chances near the bahamas and gulf still yet to take any shape. the weak trough passing through the bahamas is getting close to the upper weakness forecast to propagate nw and n towards the carolinas/mid atlantic. almost no convection in the area but some may spring up shortly. most globals still indicating a low developing near the carolinas... looking somewhat baroclinic, but still noteworthy since it may have a tropical character.
late weekend/next week a variety of models are showing weak low pressure in near the louisiana coast as the dying front offshore and mid level weakness begin to tail away to the west. like the feature near the bahamas.. not showing anything yet.
looks like a new system will take franklin's place. as noted by several, the feature near the islands may present a threat to the southeast mid-late next week.
HF 0802z29july