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Currently no real model support for development of 92L even though we see it happening to some degree. GFS shows mostly an open wave getting lifted NW , then north after approaching the Bahamas, as it shows little ridging there. CMC shows about the same solution. NOGAPS and UKMET close off a low near the east coast of Florida by 144. Still have yesterdays FSUMM5 from 12Z. So the race will be on to see if 92L pulls north under the influence of the evacuating trough or, as per the Melbourne disco this am, it stays a little south and slower, and moves underneath the building it will have an improving environment and push WNW. Since the globals had this system sstalling near the Bahamas a few days ago, I'm inclined to go with the latter solution. Still, the GFS and Canadien are not too impressed by anything out there in the coming week. They should come around I believe, given the improved structure of 92L and its continued organization. Cheers!! |