everything secondary to 92L and the close-in stuff this post.
92L still appears to have a weak sfc low attached to a trough, with the convection strung out sw/ne along it. it's moving into the virgin islands... if there's something classifiable this afternoon we'll know as recon and san juan radar will be on it. track wnw towards the bahamas looks good with this feature. ridging is trying to build near/south of it presently.
three areas near the u.s. that will need to be watched.. how they play off of the pattern or each other varies from model to model.
that feature that was supposed to appear near the bahamas magically did early this morning.. wouldn't be surprised if they divert recon to make a pass through it this afternoon. some deep convection is firing along it, and the curvature from the surface trough is still apparent. anticyclonic ridging behind the weak upper low near the florida straits has this thing looking like a late-blooming troublemaker this morning. since it's acquiring definition early and the mid-layer ridge appears to be partially intact.. it may move nw/wnw towards florida. whether it moves n near the east coast or over the state is iffy... but if this thing starts developing watch things get hectic in fl this weekend.
the cousin of this thing is up over nc... the disturbance that was supposed to be there doesn't seem associated with the bahamas feature at all as i was earlier reckoning... it's a wave on the dying front. already some deep convection around hatteras, with the circulation over eastern n.c.... what appears to be an open frontal wave. it's getting a little sw shear, which should lull ahead of the next shortwave. this may be a hybrid/conversion system off the virginia capes this weekend.
still a mix on what models want to do in the gulf. the feature that has been appearing near the la coast may in fact be related to the bahamas wave.. or a propagation of it. could also just be a function of convergence with the 500mb weakness which is going to start backing towards texas. nothing there yet, and for something to be there it would have to collect at least some distance offshore.
the other features out there don't look to be in play. 93L has lost a lot of its definition, the wave behind it is low-amplitude, low-latitude. bastardi mentions mjo activating the westpac.. with soi negative there should be some backing in the deep tropics, but generally when the westpac is active the north atlantic slows down. early august will probably be slower than july, unless the normal relationships don't hold up. when that mjo pulse gets into our part of the globe mid-late month all hell may break loose again. it isn't a strong mjo wave regardless, but even a little mjo activity should work to cluster activity... create flurries and pauses.
should be a very interesting weekend.
HF 1620z29july