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Bahamas feature looks like it's trying to build in amplitude and maybe even close off a circulation, but the outflow boundary coming out of the convection to the SW right now doesn't bode well in the short term. It needs the upper pattern to stay as it is to have a shot; if either of the upper-lows on either side start to approach the system and erode the mid/upper-level shortwave ridge it is currently under, it'll probably fade. I'm not as bullish on 92L being classified today, however. The area of low pressure is broad, elongated NE-SW, and relatively disorganized -- much like the convection -- and there are little or no banding features or concentrated convection in association with the feature. Recon may find a closed circulation today, but my belief is that it'll be too weak for classification. It's going to be a close call for this one as to whether or not it misses the Greater Antilles or plows into them; the flow pattern would suggest a weak storm (i.e. not influenced greatly by the upper-lows to the northeast and northwest) would pass near or over them, while a stronger storm would likely miss them by a bit to the north. Part of it also depends upon whether or not the circulation consolidates to the north of the islands or to the south -- still don't know what'll happen there. Given the current environment, I'd imagine the former (near/over the Greater Antilles) is more likely. Nevertheless, some slow development is possible over the weekend...just not explosive into a monster by any means. 93L and the wave behind it aren't threats for development in the short-term. I missed 93L -- thought it'd develop -- but it got caught up by some drier air and increased shear. It still has a shot further west, but it's a couple of days away from doing anything significant. Any other close-in development is still a few days away or will likely not be of a tropical nature, along the lines of what HF mentioned. |