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It would seem that NWS in Miami are leaning toward less development of 92L at this time. Here are some key points from their AFD. The full product can be found here ALTHOUGH IT WAS LOOKING MORE IMPRESSIVE EARLIER (FRI MORNING) IT NOW SHOWS A MORE RAGGED LOOK. OBSERVATIONS FROM THE LEEWARD ISLAND/AND QUICKSCAT SHOW NO CIRCULATION WITH THIS SYSTEM. SOME GUIDANCE DEVELOP THIS SYSTEM INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE AND BRING IT TO NORTHERN BAHAMAS BEFORE TURNING IT NORTHWEST WITHOUT MUCH EFFECT OVER SOUTH FLORIDA. GFS ON THE OTHER HAND...TREATS THIS SYSTEM AS OPEN WAVE AND BRING IT TO FLORIDA SOMETIME BETWEEN LATE WED THROUGH THU EVENING. WILL TEND TO GO CLOSER TO GFS SOLUTION...GIVEN THE RAGGED LOOK OF THE SYSTEM...BUT STILL WILL WAIT FOR ANOTHER RUN OF THE MODELS BEFORE MAKING SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST. |