Clark
(Meteorologist)
Sun Jul 31 2005 02:14 AM
Re: 92L, 93L and GOM

92L is getting a boost from the daytime convective cycle over Hispaniola and from diffluent flow aloft in association with the upper low just to its north. It's got much more convection n association with it, but that's about it.

I'm not sure what the NWS is getting at with those winds down in South Florida. All of the other South Florida reporting stations along both coasts show offshore winds, indicative of the nighttime land breeze becoming established. The slight turning in the winds could be an indicator of the approaching rain band from the east, but the QuikSCAT pass from just a couple of hours ago shows nothing significant. Wouldn't worry about it.

93L looks a bit better organized this evening; while the convective tops are cooling a little near the center of the mid-level feature, the banding structures are becoming better defined on IR satellite imagery. A QuikSCAT pass from about 5hr ago suggests a weak circulation center was forming near 10N/57W, or about where the convective complex was at that time. Convection to the north is firing along an outflow boundary put down by the convection that was around 14N/53W earlier this afternoon and isn't too much to worry about. Expect things to go slowly.

Before, I had said that recon would go out there if the convection held up and the low-level center stuck around. Well, in the two frames after I initially posted this, the convection almost entirely went kaput. It's gotta make a recovery overnight to see recon out there tomorrow...long-term the prospects for development are still there, but something needs to stick consistently. Seeing the outflow boundary go out earlier isn't necessarily all bad -- the whole setup fits well with one of the researched theories of tropical development -- but beyond that, I still need to see more to be bullish again on this one.



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