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The TPC Discussion gives it little weight this morning though... TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 58W/59W SOUTH OF 20N MOVING WEST 20 KT. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN 56W AND 59W...AND FROM 14N TO 16N BETWEEN 58W AND 60W. CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS FROM ACTIVITY WHICH HAS WEAKENED IS FROM 18N TO 20N BETWEEN 58W AND 60W. THIS SYSTEM REMAINS POORLY ORGANIZED AND UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE ONLY MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT TO OCCUR. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM THIS AFTERNOON IF NECESSARY. I thought it looked a little better then advertised above and it looks like the shear could be lessoning in the Caribbean in the next day or so, based on some of the Shear Maps I have seen this morning. Maybe one of you more educated guys or gals could comment on the shear because I by no means am an expert. The environment does not look ideal, but I think the Recon will go unless 93L just dies this morning. |