ideas a lot of us had here since mid-week have failed to verify. the kind of presentation waves were giving last week, any time during the last month would have implied an imminent system. there's more shear in the basin now, however.. and with soi negative (not in a quick pulse, just sort of stuck there) the basin may stay slow for the near future. there isn't a golden lining to that trend, however.. this is probably the leading downturn effect of an mjo pulse that will get across to cause trouble in a few days to a couple weeks.
92L is being discredited in the recent TWO, but the trailing part of the wave (which has been ne of the focal area we've had for days) is now north of puerto rico and still has an upper anticyclone and surface trough associated. conditions aren't ideal, but this could still continue to fester. globals showing it not moving much for the early part of the week, then taking off ne out to sea. some models still showing westward movement but little development.
93L isn't showing well on the models at all but still looks to have a surface low... though disorganized and moving west at a decent clip. recon was skipped today (there will be sfc obs from the islands) but still pending for tomorrow. the eastern caribbean is usually not storm-friendly.. but there is an upper high over this system and if it slows down it has every chance to develop.
weak surface trough in the ne gulf too close to land to do much. some models still show a low riding out off the nc coast ahead of a shortwave... dubious nature and not a land threat should something tropical try to assemble.
the non-tropical low near 30/45 has a convective ball near its center and may be trying to hybridize... that'll happen if the convection lingers. this cut-off has already dived to its lowest latitude and is starting to rise north into the atlantic... slowly. the ssts are marginal and will get cooler.. so if something came out of this it would probably be labeled 'subtropical'.
african waves depressed in latitude and not perky. gfs shows the region reactivating after the coming week. will see.
HF 1614z31july