just looking at waves and saying 'oh, that's our next storm' worked between the end of june and the 3rd week of july. since then the formula has changed.. the big expanse of no shear and broad ridging across the basin has broken down into the usual early season rabble of upper troughs.
did a very small amount of research and found that mjo has activated.. the 5-day means show a strengthening dipolar anomaly pattern, with the westpac getting more favorable conditions and conditions worsening in the atlantic (particularly the eastern atlantic). soi has been negative (not strongly so), but it's more than a 3-5 day pulse and is increasing the westerly flow in the atlantic, pushing wave energy north and out along the strengthened upper troughs. mjo can activate and then wink out (like it had been from late may-early july) and may later in the season, but it looks like august will feature the feast-or-famine trends that go with mjo activity. the hurricane-enhancing anomalies will get here just as we enter the historically active part of the season (gfs has been showing more activity in the extended period)... it may take a week, ten days, two or even three weeks.. but when the negative mjo phase gets here later in august watch another flurry of hurricanes come swarming across the atlantic. the phase of mjo runs 40-50 days.. so one would expect 20-25 days of active/inactive at a particular location (though it doesn't ever work that perfectly). assuming the activation of the mitigating phase around july 15-20 (late in the life of emily), the arrival of the catalytic phase should take place somewhere between august 5-15. it'll help if soi goes positive in their sometime.. otherwise it could serve as a hangup and delay the switch. the eastpac is showing signs of life for the first time in a long time... watch for a storm out there to signal the activation of the atlantic about a week later.
as for anything trying to eek through in the meanwhile.. if it isn't in the mid latitudes already or going north/northeast... it probably won't meet much success. activity in the deep tropics should remain suppressed this week. 92L looks better than ever in terms of having a surface circulation... a single exposed low poked out of the convection this morning and has turned NE towards the main blow-up under the narrow upper ridge just east of it... another low-level swirl seems to have peeked out to its north. the shearing upper low is diving sw ahead of it finally, upper ridging should build over the mostly stationary system and give it a chance to spin up. diving shortwaves moving off the east coast should keep it out to sea, however, if it does develop. still a small chance on the troughiness hung near the SE coast, nothing so far.
should be a fairly quiet week, but things should be very different in another week or two.
HF 2323z01august