Last paragraph in the new Numbers Article.

4. Uncertainties in the Outlook

The main uncertainty in this outlook is the number of landfalling tropical storms and hurricanes in the United States and the region around the Caribbean Sea. Although the conditions that produce hurricane landfalls are well known, they are very difficult to predict at these extended ranges because they are often related to the daily weather patterns rather than the seasonal climate patterns. It is currently not possible to confidently predict the number or intensity of landfalling hurricanes at these extended ranges, or whether a given locality will be impacted by a hurricane this season. Historically, seasons with above-normal levels of overall activity have averaged 2-3 U.S. hurricane landfalls and 1-2 landfalls in the region around the Caribbean Sea during August-November. Given the forecast of above-normal activity for the remainder of the season, it is imperative that residents and government officials in hurricane-vulnerable communities have a hurricane preparedness plan in place.