danielwAdministrator
(Moderator)
Tue Aug 02 2005 01:06 PM
Re: The Bottom Lines

Quote:

wow. wow. wow.

They must really be certain that things in the tropics are going to hit the fan in the next few weeks to issue that high of a prediction Yikes




Not necessarily. A large quantity of the numbers are based on Climatology.
With August and September being the most active months...normally.

NOAA's Forecast, plus Dr Gray's Forecast, due out this week, should give us a better idea of what to expect.
Under normal conditions.
I've looked at Dr Gray's verification from last year. He was very close with all of his numbers.
It appears that the only numbers that were off. Were the numbers related to the longevity of the storms.
Named Storm days, Hurricane Days, and Intense Hurricane Days.
This was probably due to the August- September, 2004 surge in long track storms.

I'll have to see if NOAA has completed a verification of their Forecast from last year.



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