td 8 finally popped out of 92L to keep us some company in the lull. seen comments about the mjo in both an nhc twd yesterday and on the accuwx tropical update, so it ain't just me thinking this break is temporary. the graphic the fill-in for bastardi put up today showed the enhancing anomalies working their way in over the next week or two and really setting up shop late this month. then noaa had to go put their forecast out ahead of gray... they're talking something 1995-esque. gray ought to be somewhere in their ranges (though he won't give spreads and percentages.. objective numbers). noticed the AP guys have bastardi's threat zones quoted in their article (saw it on fox and cnn today). i put more stock in his numbers than i do in that MIT guy saying hurricanes are getting stronger (flawed, limited data begets spurious conclusions).
not much to disco tonight. fish spinner should be harvey tomorrow. the hurricane hunter will probably find harvey tomorrow if a convective blow-up doesn't get it there via improved satelite appearance. it's in a very narrow support environment and vulnerable; the storm may prove tenacious as franklin did a week ago, however. the forecast track looks reasonable... should be a messy time in bermuda wed/thu. fine scottish weather.
that itcz low sw of the cape verdes has all kinds of model support, but i don't see it developing quickly or dislodging itself like the globals are showing. that thing may fester and work its way out... or may play possum for days. the eastpac features have perked up some, so that makes me think atlantic activity should start to reactivate in about a week... and be really cranking around august 20th.
two minor features. a convergence zone continues along the old frontal boundary/weakness under the ridge from east of ga to the central gulf coast. weak model support for low pressure in either of these areas lingering throughout the week. nothing indicates development, however.
HF 0438z03august