i didn't think we'd see anything try to crank in the eastern atlantic. that's acting up either in spite of generally negative conditions or maybe the mjo suppression is lessening. 95L had enough model support but i and everybody else who commented the other day didn't expect anything this soon. even nhc said the models development of the feature was questionable. but there it is... bulging off the itcz with strong convergence at the surface and divergence aloft... the upper trough ahead of it seems to be sliding west (seeing as the TUTT feature that was chopping up harvey has broken down and the tendency is to replace it). this defies my timetable of nothing this week, things starting back late next week through mid-month. of course the beneficial conditions seem to not be doing much in the westpac.. one typhoon presently after two or three storms as of late.. and now there's a centpac depression and a persistent disturbance in the eastpac that's almost out the window. i've got a hunch it will do more in the atlantic.
so anywho... here's the take: harvey entrained a bunch of dry air thanks to that upper low jamming all of its subsidence into the storm's core. harvey looks subtropical, but is really just a choked tropical system. it was probably at tropical storm strength overnight or even yesterday afternoon... multiple centers or no. should move very close to bermuda and they'll get a squall or two in the core, some gales.. then harvey drifts on by and gets caught and yanked out into the north atlantic over the weekend. trough trailing behind harvey will have to be watched, but probably not do anything.
95L has the look we like to talk about. lots of low level convergence and an increasingly discrete low pressure area bulging off the itcz. there's a convective pulse gaining on the low from the rear and a trough-low in the itcz a couple hundred miles to the southwest... all of this should keep the development pace slow to modest... 12-24 looks good for a depression and 24-48 for a storm. systems forming this far east usually recurve and this one probably will also. several of the globals show it going up between 50-60w next week. how much of a weakness harvey leaves and whether the 500mb ridge builds with it off africa could determine whether it stays more to the south, but i'd just as soon call it a fishspinner.
i've noticed that late period gfs depicts a strong subtropical ridge across the atlantic... follow ons may get further west if this verifies. i'm uncertain as the ncep extended forecast indicates strong ridging in the central/eastern u.s. (which implies troughing somewhere off the east coast, usually). latter half of august is probably going to be hectic.
HF 0039z04august