The models on 95L are telling us that a weakness will develop between the two Atlantic Ridge Axes and the system which will develop, will be pulled north in the next 72 hours...the only way it does not do that is if it remains weak and disorganized for the next two days and then develops which will bring it west further and under the western ridge and then it will have a more western solution...
As for the increase in numbers: it is essentially the earlier number plus what has occured adjusted for what normal activity in the early season should have allowed...Tropical Storm Risk will update on the 7th and I am interested in their update as much of the final evaluations will be based on the July patterns as they actually developed.