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Have to agree with you canetracker. The 12Z GFS and even the CMC and the 6z GFDL are pulling it nothward for a time, but it misses the trough that Harvey drags across. It really doesn't get much further north than 22N at any point (waiting for the rest of the 12Z). tHE 6z gfdl is intersting 'cause it shows a NW turn, then a move back to the WNW at the end of the period. NOGAPS doesn't show this feature at all really. CMC 12z now shows it heading toward the tail of Harvey then stalls as a ridge builds in and seals off the trough, not allowing 95L to escape. Now if 95L misses that trough, it will have to come westward, as I believe the GFS' depiction of another trough on the east coast may be bunk, as ridging should be building near Bermuda. BTW, there wants to be another system further south than 95L that is shadowing it on the GFS. Starting to get interesting. This is the first bonifide CV system this year, August 4, 2005, in the year of our Lord. Cheers!!
Yeah, I agree with your assessment. One difference I think I have noticed in the global models is how they handle the departing of Harvey..The CMC & GFS don't want to move out the storm quickly to the NE like the NHC track or NOGAPS. Instead both of these models as well as the UKMET want to meander and trap Harvey in the center of the Atlantic ridge and not scoot him off to the North Atlantic, thus creating the weakness that allows 95L to move more northward into. While the CMC/GFS solution is possible, my bet is with NHC & NOGAPS that Harvey gets picked up and wisked away to the northern latitudes. It's interesting that the GFDL has trended more W-NW with 95Ls track from its earlier 00Z run. My bet is that the Atlantic Ridge rebuilds after the departure of Harvey and 95L takes a more W-NW course.
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Re: Tropical Storm Harvey Forms in Atlantic