Kevin
(Weather Master)
Thu Aug 04 2005 08:51 PM
Re: Tropical Depression Nine Forms in Atlantic

I'm pretty much with NHC's 120 hour track...give or take a little with that line. But I'd say that things are really wide open after that.

FWIW, the 12Z GFS has backed off with a turn northward. Instead, it shows what would be "Irene" missing the low pressure areas and turning westward.
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/12/index_slp_l_loop.shtml

Interesting that last night, somebody on this board brought up a Frances (2004)/Alberto (2000) comparison for TD9. I think that is a fair comparison.

After 120 hours, we *could* see forecasts that show a westward turn. This really wouldn't surprise me. I just don't know if the trough/Harvey combination will be far enough south to pick Irene up and finish the job.


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