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Kevin -- I'm about 50/50 on that turn right now. It all depends on how fast Harvey gets out of here, how much of a weakness is left in the subtropical ridge, and how strong the future Irene gets. A turn like Frances could happen, or it could recurve harmlessly out to sea -- I don't know, and I don't think the models will agree on it for some time either. I do believe, however, that the storm will likely miss the islands to the north, probably by a fair distance.
50/50 looks about right...i'm sure that even pro mets would have a hard time justifying one solution over another at this point. it's just too early. looking for trends is the best way to go.
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Re: Tropical Depression Nine Forms in Atlantic