| Kevin |
| (Weather Master) |
| Thu Aug 04 2005 05:29 PM |
|
Re: Tropical Depression Nine Forms in Atlantic
|
Quote:
As far as if it is going to hit the U.S all you can do right now is guess and not wild but a guess.
As far as wishcasters oh ya there are some you watch when they post here forcast about it going to a certain place in the U.S and then it turns out to sea they go away till a turn comes back.I have read this forum a long time and as with every site there is always wishcasters and they will be out no matter what NHC says.
Just read back to the Dennis posts to see them they are there.
The point is the NHC does not go and make predictions more then 5 days out and even then the margin for error is great so how can ANYONE right now say anything for down the road but wait and see.
You can't make a prediction now about 7-10 days from now as the NHC can't even but watch the people will be out in force soon with the francis posts and the watch out east coast of Florida posts.
Is it just too boring to say well guys lets check it in 3 days from now and se whats up.
Nope that would be boring so the uneducated predictions will come.
You want one from me that will come true? like most i cant be wrong.
Well it has a 50/50 shot at either going out to sea or going west and hitting the U.S.
Well im a forcaster now huh? im going to be right 1 way or the other.
First of all, we're not even talking about any landfalls. We're talking about the *possible* motion trends after 5 days. Nobody mentioned any landfall locations.
To make another point: sure, I'll give it to you...wishcasters can be found on most all weather message boards. I don't think it is an absolutely huge problem on this board though.
There's nothing wrong with waiting to check up on the system in a few days. The wait and see method is just one way that people can watch storms. At the same time, some people actually enjoy speculating on where a storm may track in the long run. As long as the speculation is not totally left field, I believe it is appropriate for these message boards. Once again, calling a landfall point for TD 9 would be left field at this point. Speculation on motion after 120 hours without making a landfall prediction? That is probably okay, as long as acceptable reasoning is provided.