18z gfs has future irene near 22/58 in 144hrs... thats in the east coast strike window. that's very un-gfs-like... whatever happened to up and out east of 60w? later runs are getting rid of harvey and rebridging the subtropical ridge. nhc's 5pm advisory looked more like earlier runs with nw movement in the extended range. if the 00z runs are trending west the forecast track will go to the left. as mentioned this sucker is 10-12 days out if it's going to run across.. so lots of time for changes and tweaks and for the fairy godmother to go medieval on it.
harvey i'd say has more than a minimal chance at scratching hurricane strength. its convective organization has continued to slowly improve since it started looking purely tropical yesterday. it'll never get the call unless an eye structure starts to show, though.
the weak low near the mouth of the mississippi is the interesting side note today. there's a broad/sloppy gyre in the area, persistent mostly diurnal convection, and some weak anticyclonic ridging to building in the area. since it isn't moving a whole lot one good convective burst could get a more focused vortmax in the area.. and get the ball rolling. most globals have been showing a weak low in the area migrating inland over the weekend.. there probably isn't time for a spin up.
wave behind future irene has mostly gfs support, but some of the other globals are tracking it. most keep it separate from the lead system and track it.. keep it on a low trajectory. it'll take days to do anything... modest chance it tries something.
should be busy all next week with irene.
HF 2342z04august

addon--some of the vorticity tailing SW of harvey might serve as a focal point as well. lots of the models that were trying to keep harvey stuck east of bermuda for days may have been hanging on to whatever gets left in the wake. -HF 2346z04august