it would be interesting to compare names; the last time we had Irene (1999) it was very unpredictable (although in a different place)
it hit Key West 12 hours after the 36hr forecast had it hitting Cedar Key

and it followed NONE of the model paths
Irene 1999

My forecast is along the lines of NHC, although i think it will go further south, and their forecasts tomorrow will probably show that
a track similar to Hugo in 1989 or Felix in 1995 (without all the looping) are highly likely at the moment based on the model runs and all
I expect we will have Irene before 5pm tomorrow, and a hurricane before Saturday afternoon, and *POSSIBY* a Cat III by the end of the weekend (i give no certainties past 3 days, just what i think is the most likely out of several scenarios that may play out)

I will not get much more specific on the track until this has been around for a few days--there is still a possibility, although very small, that this could simply dissipate within 36 hours (that is usually the point in time at which it is certain, for me anyway, if something will hold together or not)