There are two items that are missing on that projection.
The Low in the SE GOM is a 1000mb Surface Low. Read probable TD>TS.
The area in the Atlantic does Not have a closed isobar at the surface.
Read probable Tropical Wave.

Steve, the UKMET at 144hrs. I'm counting 24m/s (45kts) of wind at the 850mb level. And the wind barbs on the eastern side of the vortice at 850mb indicate 45kts. This might?translate to a Tropical Storm at the surface. The pressures are too high for a Major Hurricane. 1000mb or higher at the surface.
This location is based on the ridge breaking down, or developing a weakness.