danielw
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| (Moderator) |
| Thu Aug 04 2005 09:10 PM |
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Re: Tropical Depression Nine Forms in Atlantic
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Quote:
GFS Long range
East Coast storm and a possible GOM storm right behind....
here goes a record season next week and half.
18 GFS slp Image
There are two items that are missing on that projection.
The Low in the SE GOM is a 1000mb Surface Low. Read probable TD>TS.
The area in the Atlantic does Not have a closed isobar at the surface.
Read probable Tropical Wave.
Steve, the UKMET at 144hrs. I'm counting 24m/s (45kts) of wind at the 850mb level. And the wind barbs on the eastern side of the vortice at 850mb indicate 45kts. This might?translate to a Tropical Storm at the surface. The pressures are too high for a Major Hurricane. 1000mb or higher at the surface.
This location is based on the ridge breaking down, or developing a weakness.