Ralph, I understand your concerns. However, I have yet to see a post here today that says it is going to hit Jacksonville in anything other than a very sarcastic manner. Posts that got out of hand were dealt with by the moderators. Obviously it is irresponsible to say that a storm is going to hit anywhere 16 days out. Yes, people are going to look at the guidance; I'll admit it took a look at it myself. But, no one is suggesting that it is going to hit there...just that it is an "interesting" solution and should be watched. If it looks like the storm has a greater chance of recurving out to sea, you'll see that reflected in the nature of the blogs & posts here and elsewhere. Post quantity may go down, but that's only because the storm will not pose a threat to the area that many people are from -- the SE US -- and thus the need for information and desire to learn more about the storm is not as great.

We cannot account for people who choose to react in a certain manner to something poster here, no matter how credible or not it may be. I certainly hope that no one is using any of my forecasts for anything more than guidance! I try to let everyone know my thinking on a storm, but I am a firm believer in following the authorities, from watching a storm to being prepared for a storm to evacuating if need be at the appropriate time. My thinking -- just like that of anyone here or elsewhere -- should only be used as a tool. I like to try to educate people about the tropics, with a little forecasting thrown in on the side. Since we've had an active season, it's been more of the latter recently. Once the season ends, it'll be almost exclusively the former. I should note in conjunction with all of the above that the disclaimer that comes with the website is that "This is NOT an official page. It is run by weather hobbyists and should not be used as a replacement for official sources" and "When in doubt, take the word of the National Hurricane Center." It is certainly sage advice.

We will know where the storm is going to go when it gets closer to where it is going to go, that much is obvious. However, we are going to watch it until that point and weigh the possibilities in our heads. There is a possibility it may hit land -- and there is at least an equally likely possibility that it turns out to sea. We don't know yet, but we can see what the weather pattern *might* be like and try to assign some sort of probability to what might happen. That's about all we can do right now, and what I think anyone who is posting their thoughts is really trying to do. Hurricane season is all about being prepared for whatever may come your way. Tracking a storm in the eastern Atlantic is a part of that for many people, and that's why we are here on the boards.