Well...Avila's first sentence of the 11a discussion says it all with regards to TD 9. Lots of people look to be wrong on this one unless something changes and the system reforms further to the south. None of our model guidance or analysis products indicated this possibility, but lo and behold it has happened. Their forecast is probably on course for the time being, bringing it to a TS in a few days, but that's a far cry from what could've been and what was predicted just 12hr ago. Still one to watch, but the envelope is much different now.

Wave behind it bears watching, might be 96L in a day or two. Harvey's headed out to sea, though it'll hang around a little while before then. All in all, a false start to August, perhaps? We'll know in a couple of days.