doug
(Weather Analyst)
Fri Aug 05 2005 01:56 PM
Re: 9L

Here is a theorey on the surprise we all received this morning when we saw what 9L actually looked like:

Perhaps we had the dominant LLC misplaced...I personally thought it was near where some convection fired off yesterday and located at around 12.5 N and just to the east of the larger convective mass. However there did seem to be something just north of that which is why I said it looked elongated, but the convection soon seperated the two areas and it seemed the depression had formed around 12.5 north approx.
What if the exposed center today is what was there to the north all along and has spun out on its own, AND the vortex at 12.5 was not on the surface and was midlevel.
I say that becasue there is still some visual evidence for some vorticity on the east side of the convection at around 12.5, which is getting a little more vigorous again, but as far as I can see no surface reflection..
.If I am right then this was never a depression but only a wave all along.



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