I think it's a goner. I have not been impressed all along....systems seem to have a 'memory' from how they start, sometimes. This system has bever been really well organized (maybe "classically" organized is a better term to use) and started 'running down' almost from the start....convection doesn't persist.

Here is what Avila says:

BECAUSE THE DEPRESION DOES NOT HAVE DEEP CONVECTION AT THIS TIME AND
IS A SHALLOW SYSTEM...IT IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT
14-16 KNOTS STEERED BY THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
CALLS FOR A WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK...WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED...AND A MODEST STRENGHTENING BEYOND 3 DAYS. THIS
FORECAST IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN SINCE THERE IS ALSO A STRONG
POSSIBILITY THAT THE DEPRESSION WILL NOT SURVIVE. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST IS IN THE MIDDLE THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. THE NORTHERNMOST
TRACK IS THE GFS AND THE SOUTHERNMOST IS THE UK MODEL.

FORECASTER AVILA

Also, very interesting what he said in first part of the disco ( not reprinted here)....about the upper low coming so far south. I am beginning to have just the shred of a doubt about the hyperactive season. Now, this is just one storm, and it is early August (although the activity so far makes it seem more like late August !), and, this may ONLY apply to systems over in the Eastlant (I think most of our "trouble" this season is going to come from closer in....) but, MAYBE, just maybe, all the favorable indicators are going to be mitigated by too much TUTT/Upper low activity...too much vorticity in the mid and upper levels.

I notices in Gray's forecast for August, he noted about as many negative factors as positives (this changed in Sept and October). So, maybe AUGUST will not be the super active month we thought....but, like last year, September may make up for it.

We will see...!

MM