I'm going to have to disagree with you on TD9, MM. It had the organization ever since it came off of the coast of Africa. Unlike many other waves, the convection persisted for days, organized around a well-defined mid-level center. The low-level surface center, until very recently, was co-located with that mid-level center, allowing for development. Only once the shear and perhaps some slight dry air entrainment took hold did the system look disorganized...and that was just overnight. Many will agree, from the NHC on down...this one had the model support, had the "look" that so many CV systems that develop do, and had the favorable conditions to support its development.

The upper lows are transient features and, given a few days to a week, this one will do much the same. Harvey & the trough that comes to pick it up will likely help to lift this feature northward as well, and ridging is present or developing across much of the rest of the basin. We may not have a quick start to the month (beyond what we've already seen), but the middle and latter parts of the month should be kicking.