Ok, Ralph, I gotcha.

You'll find a lot of people here with a lot of various interpretations of the models. Personally, I take them all with a grain of salt. They'll be jumping around over the next couple of days a lot. With all of the factors coming into play (riding, shear, SAL, etc), I don't really know if there is such a thing as a "good" model. These things are just for guidance and to bring up interesting possibilities, it's the mets who are the most dependable when it comes to tracks.