Storm Hunter
(Veteran Storm Chaser)
Sat Aug 06 2005 02:20 AM
Re: Avila's reading my mind

The latest AFD fro TLH/TAE mention eyes will watch the GOM for the next few days..... But being close to land, doesn't give it much of a chance, except for a lot of rain over the Panhandle. I think the FSU MM5 was trying to spinn up something in this area, now the GFS is too, but appears a little too much.




AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
843 PM EDT FRI AUG 5 2005

.DISCUSSION...THE UPPER LOW HAS RETROGRADED TO A POSITION ROUGHLY
CENTERED OVER SWRN AL AND THE WRN FL PANHANDLE. WE HAVE ALSO BEEN
ABLE TO ANALYZE A SURFACE REFLECTION OF THIS FEATURE TODAY,
CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER THE GULF JUST S OF PNS. NHC IS ACTUALLY
MONITORING THIS FEATURE PER THEIR LATEST TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK,
ALTHOUGH THEY MENTION THAT ITS PROXIMITY TO THE COAST SHOULD
PRECLUDE ANY DEVELOPMENT, AT LEAST OVER THE SHORT TERM.
ALL OF THE
SHORT RANGE MODELS SHOW THE LOW LINGERING RIGHT AT THE COAST, BEFORE
MOVING INLAND ON SUN. WHETHER THE LOW EVER DEVELOPS ANY TROPICAL
CHARACTERISTICS OR NOT, THE CIRCULATION WILL HELP TO MAINTAIN THE
MOIST FLOW OF TROPICAL AIR INTO THE REGION.

.MARINE...WE WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE
LOW TO THE W. IF IT DEVELOPS LIKE THE GFS, AND TO A LESSER EXTENT WE WILL MENTION THE LOW IN THE SYNOPSIS AND
BEGIN TO TREND THE WIND AND SEAS FORECAST UP JUST A BIT BEGINNING
SAT NIGHT, ALTHOUGH WE WON'T GO QUITE AS HIGH AS THE GFS/WAVEWATCH
JUST YET.



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