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The latest AFD fro TLH/TAE mention eyes will watch the GOM for the next few days..... But being close to land, doesn't give it much of a chance, except for a lot of rain over the Panhandle. I think the FSU MM5 was trying to spinn up something in this area, now the GFS is too, but appears a little too much. AFDTAE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 843 PM EDT FRI AUG 5 2005 .DISCUSSION...THE UPPER LOW HAS RETROGRADED TO A POSITION ROUGHLY CENTERED OVER SWRN AL AND THE WRN FL PANHANDLE. WE HAVE ALSO BEEN ABLE TO ANALYZE A SURFACE REFLECTION OF THIS FEATURE TODAY, CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER THE GULF JUST S OF PNS. NHC IS ACTUALLY MONITORING THIS FEATURE PER THEIR LATEST TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK, ALTHOUGH THEY MENTION THAT ITS PROXIMITY TO THE COAST SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY DEVELOPMENT, AT LEAST OVER THE SHORT TERM. ALL OF THE SHORT RANGE MODELS SHOW THE LOW LINGERING RIGHT AT THE COAST, BEFORE MOVING INLAND ON SUN. WHETHER THE LOW EVER DEVELOPS ANY TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS OR NOT, THE CIRCULATION WILL HELP TO MAINTAIN THE MOIST FLOW OF TROPICAL AIR INTO THE REGION. .MARINE...WE WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE LOW TO THE W. IF IT DEVELOPS LIKE THE GFS, AND TO A LESSER EXTENT WE WILL MENTION THE LOW IN THE SYNOPSIS AND BEGIN TO TREND THE WIND AND SEAS FORECAST UP JUST A BIT BEGINNING SAT NIGHT, ALTHOUGH WE WON'T GO QUITE AS HIGH AS THE GFS/WAVEWATCH JUST YET. |