>>Just read back to the Dennis posts to see them they are there.

On some forums there were serious wobble wars between Texans and Floridians. I try not to wishcast for the opposite reason, I don't want to jinx my chances at getting a storm. So until something's on top of me, I'm not calling it to come here (usually). I saw someone mention Dr. Gray's forecast. The thing that sticks out at me is the ACE index of 235. That's record territory for overall seasonal intensity if it verifies. I think a lot of people figured that this would be more of an average year after the insane 2004 storm season. But Dr. Gray's ACE predicts 6 more intensity points than were observed. So we'll see.

As far as the tropics, I think we're just going to see a few named storms here and there before the season revs up in a couple of weeks. And when it does, it might go full throttle for 4 or 5 weeks, slow back and then peak again during October. If you consider there have been 6 storms already in the Gulf of Mexico, you'd think that was a banner year for the Gulf. But we'll probably see 9 or more* (not an official forecast, JMO). That's a crazy number and a rarity.

The 1014 low that's along the surface trof south of FL is interesting. JB progged something to form south of LA last week, but other than the trof remaining draped across the northern GC and adjacent waters, it hasn't spun up anything organized. There has been a suface low every day (per NWS plots) alternating between Morgan City and around Destin. Sometimes the surface reflection has been overland, other times over water. But whatever it is dies down over night until another area spawns up the next day. The Gulf is plenty warm enough for low level feedback, and with some of the energy from the former Invest 93L a few hundred miles SE of the low and moving again, there might be a spark to get something rolling. I'd give it < 30%, but some stronger rains and storms might result Saturday and Sunday because of the additional influx of tropical energy. Some places on the Panhandle got 4+" today. And while there's not a really good chance for development, odds are that there will be plenty more rain to go around tomorrow.

FWIW, NAO's been semi predictive/concurrent with some of this season's activity. As noted last month, we're at about 50% of this year's named named storms forming as it crossed the 0 line (most recently Harvey). That's something to probably watch as the season wears on not only for future tracks but for identification of pattern changes where development could occur.

Steve