stuff in order:
harvey.. lingering, probably around for another 36-48 hrs or so. then out it goes.
9L... starting to generate some convection again. it isn't 'weakening' because it was probably stronger (maybe a borderline t.s.) last night before the convection went poof. the track has bent back to the west today... makes a little more sense to be honest. there's some westerly shear from that ULL to the north... should keep it in check for saturday. later sunday 9L will probably be revving up some. if it can deepen significantly by tuesday or so, it'll turn up near/east of bermuda. if it keeps plodding along, weak.. it'll be a western atlantic threat. scottsvb most recently highlighted this option... the ridge isn't what we'd typically expect to keep a storm going west, so it'll have to keep a low profile or out it goes. there's also the option that it doesn't survive.. but i don't buy it. it'll probably persist.
trailer wave... near 18/20w behind 9L. gfs tracks this and keeps it on a low trajectory. like any wave in a year like this... can be a development threat as it gets further west next week.
gulf to bahamas... the weak low near pensacola is too close to the coast to really develop. further south along the trough another max could develop. don't expect that to pan out. two more areas east of florida... the mcc core from last night's florida convection started blowing more late this afternoon. there's a broad turning around there.. trough axis going east and west... and it's still throwing convection tonight. eyeball it tomorrow, especially if pressures start falling. there's another trough max east of the bahamas. it hasn't looked much better today.
i don't see anything else worth note. irene still seems to be coming along. the home brew option is floating around.
noticed that SOI is rising towards neutral again (maybe). makes me think the mjo wave is passing the westpac and soon to really get cranking on this side of the pond.
HF 0658z06august