Re: upper low near PR and what the fsu MM5 does with it -- well, you're not going to get a good read on what an upper-level low does by looking at surface pressure. For another, the weak impulse that shows up in that area may or may not come from that upper-low...you can't tell based off of the surface pressure. And, it is just that -- weak. The lowest pressure it shows is 1008mb, and not for 4-5 days. That's nothing to write home about. I don't doubt that it might form, but it's not going to be anything to worry about and likely has nothing to do with an upper-level low.

Harvey's doing a nice Franklin imitation, if playing the role a bit better than did Franklin a week or two back. TD 9 keeps trying to fire convection, but it's all on the periphery of the circulation, like last night. The center has become elongated east-west in the past couple of hours, suggesting that the storm might be feeling the negative effects of the shear. It's got to get that convection over the center for some period of time within the next day or it'll likely be declassified by this time tomorrow. Storms are naturally pretty resistent to complete dissipation due to shear, but for a weak storm, this one has held on best it can under the conditions. Given the uncertainty about its survival beyond the weekend, it's not feasible to try to speculate on future track. It should turn back west soon, but the weakness looks like it'll still be there in the ridge to allow it to turn, even for a weak system. Very complex flow pattern unfolding, with any number of possibilities...gotta see whether or not TD9 survives first, though.