harvey is maybe starting to nudge north now. 9L is generating a good amount of convection again.. it's still displaced under westerly shear, but the storm is deepening nonetheless. shear should lessen tomorrow. it's on a track where you just can't tell whether it will get the harvey wake-weakness or not... might go up and out, or it might get into the western atlantic and back under the ridge. there are model runs showing either scenario and the nhc track up the middle to compensate for the uncertainty... models have switched sides on this thing, too. gut tells me it will strengthen tomorrow and monday and turn northwestward, but i'm not certain. there's some itcz activity south/southwest of 9L.. and odd low trying to develop.. but proximity should keep it inactive. the trailer wave is fairly vigorous but should take a few days to get organized if at all.
northern gulf coast system has been a series of lows that develop near the coast, and redevelop.. but never get any better organized. i don't think it's more than a rainmaker.
east of jacksonville is a different story. it isn't jammed into the coast and isn't beneath an upper low. that thing should make a development run.. and move north or northwest towards the carolinas. it will have to hurry because time is limited. nhc wouldn't talk about reconning it if there wasn't a good chance it'll try to develop.
further southeast near 26/72 there's another low level turning... under easterly shear right now. this feature should migrate wnw per eta and persist, unless the system to its nw develops significantly and entrains it.
should have irene tomorrow... with a modest chance of another system developing close in.
HF 1925z06august