Clark
(Meteorologist)
Sat Aug 06 2005 09:03 PM
Re: Center relocation

N of Hispaniola: run of the mill TUTT cell, an upper-low that has been moving west for days now. Nothing to be concerned with. Should continue west, maybe slowing down.

SC/GA coast feature: if it were to sit there for a few days, sure. Don't foresee much development with this one, though. Probably at best, a repeat of TD 7 from 2003, heading NW inland. Might see something akin to the feature that moved up the east coast at the end of June, but on a different track. Tough to discern if a surface center is there right now; some broad low-level turning just east of Jacksonville earlier has faded, while the mid-level convective feature is obscuring things further NE. Will be watched, but not bullish on development.

FL/AL feature: much easier to discern a surface feature here, but it's weak and tough to tell if it is of a tropical or extratropical nature. Banking somewhere in the middle. Too close to land and too much shear to do anything big, but the weakness should hang around for a few more days near land. If it were further south, it'd have a shot...here, though, not likely.

TD 9: well, the convection finally decided to come closer to the center. Some of the models are perking up with this one a little more down the line, while the official track seems to be slowing down in the long range. More likely to recurve now than to not, but there's no consensus whatsoever towards either option.

Harvey: heading out to sea, earlier indications that it might try to undergo some extratropical development, but in any case...well out of our hair.

Next up: might see the next African wave get classified with an invest in a day or two as it moves further west. It's got a shot, but it's got a little bit of what TD 9 went through to deal with as well. Shouldn't go that far north, which would likely see it meet much the same fate, but probably won't get going until later on down the line.

Elsewhere...the basin's closed south of about 28 N and west of the islands. That upper-low near Hispaniola has coupled with a couple of other cells to create a shearing environment across the region. As it moves west, things will improve, but the southern Gulf and W. Caribbean are probably closed for another week or so.



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