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The convection is pulling in toward the east side of the depression again. Course the last several hours looks due westerly. Peeking at the water vapor, it looks like Irene will miss the weakness (trough) of Harvey and cruise more or less west or W-NW for the next two days. There is an upper level ridge building east of the big ULL north of the bahamas & I expect Irene to at some point get into a good environment to strengthen. The only limiting factor is dry air. Be real interesting to see where she goes after 60W - will the Atlantic Ridge fill in behind the ULL and leave Irene on the westerly course or will this weakness carry her north up the west side of Bermuda? So far the numerical models have been pretty useless with this storm. |