Shear is gradually improving across the basin as well. The upper-low that has been affecting Irene is about to get kicked out by the same system that grabbed Harvey; at the very least, it should kick it far enough north to keep it out of the tropical basin for awhile. The upper-low near the Bahamas is riding along the west side of a developing ridge across the western Atlantic, while the connected TUTT cell over the Yucutan shows signs of weakening and moving NW. Ridging has developed in the extreme southern Caribbean and out into the tropical Atlantic, with signs of this becoming more prevalent across the basin.

Models suggest a low might become cut-off over the central Atlantic near 35N/50W late in the week -- from the UKMET and GFS showing a midlatitude low diving south and cutting off to the NOGAPS showing Irene recurving and getting stuck -- which could help set up a pattern to allow a lot of the waves to recurve as they develop if it reaches far enough south, or could just set up a blocking pattern to allow for the pattern to maintain itself for a long period of time. They also suggest another trough might become established across the eastern part of the basin...with the pattern we're in now and potentially forecast to stay in looking a lot like early June did. We'll just have to see this weekend.

While Irene is pretty far north and still a bit more likely to get sent out to sea than turned back to the west, anything that gets going down the line is going to have a better shot at getting across. If nothing else, Irene & the waves down to the south should help moisten the central Atlantic a tad. Everything is moving into place for something to kick up in about a week, from the basin-wide conditions on down to the climatological and intraseasonal factors. GFS kicks up about three systems over the next 6 days in the EPac; there's some support for at least 1-2 storms in the other models as well. Give it a few more days and the Atlantic should follow suit, if not to an even greater degree given what we've seen this season.