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Quote: Ftlaudbob, the scenario is trending toward the US east coast. It's still too far out to call, and this storm has proved unpredictable, but the global patterns are migrating toward a large ridge settng up over the eastern coast this weekend into early next week. If it verifies, it will force the storm west at some point (or continue it west). I noticed the BAM models show this in their latest runs. This is a somewhat similar pattern to what happened with Andrew, but let's not alarm anyone yet. This is a weak storm and NHC is not predicting more than TS status. From HPC this am on the building ridge: THERE IS REASONABLE SUPPORT FROM THE D+8 MEAN FOR A MORE PERSISTENT H5 RIDGE OVER THE E COAST THAN THE PREVIOUSLY PREFERRED 00Z GFS. THE 00Z NCEP ENS MEAN HAD SUPPORTED MORE RIDGING OVER THE E COAST...AND NOW THE 06Z GFS AND DGEX ARE EVEN MORE PRONOUNCED WITH THEIR RIDGING ON DAYS 6/MON AND 7/TUES THAN THE 00Z GFS. WITH A PERSISTENT RIDGE IN THE E...A LESS PROGRESSIVE H5 TROF IS PREFERRED IN THE NWRN/N CNTRL CONUS THE SECOND HALF OF THE PD COMPARED TO THE 00Z GFS. |