Ron Basso
(Storm Tracker)
Tue Aug 09 2005 03:18 PM
Re: comments on the day

Quote:

I am more concerned today than yesterday about Irene.She looks much better,and if you follow the dots she is moving west.I have to bring up Andrew again,as far as the track goes.If it is to stay on the forcast track she will have to turn more north sometime tonight.There is no way I am taking my eye off this one.




Ftlaudbob, the scenario is trending toward the US east coast. It's still too far out to call, and this storm has proved unpredictable, but the global patterns are migrating toward a large ridge settng up over the eastern coast this weekend into early next week. If it verifies, it will force the storm west at some point (or continue it west). I noticed the BAM models show this in their latest runs. This is a somewhat similar pattern to what happened with Andrew, but let's not alarm anyone yet. This is a weak storm and NHC is not predicting more than TS status. From HPC this am on the building ridge:

THERE IS REASONABLE SUPPORT FROM THE D+8 MEAN FOR A MORE
PERSISTENT H5 RIDGE OVER THE E COAST THAN THE PREVIOUSLY PREFERRED
00Z GFS. THE 00Z NCEP ENS MEAN HAD SUPPORTED MORE RIDGING OVER
THE E COAST...AND NOW THE 06Z GFS AND DGEX ARE EVEN MORE
PRONOUNCED WITH THEIR RIDGING ON DAYS 6/MON AND 7/TUES THAN THE
00Z GFS. WITH A PERSISTENT RIDGE IN THE E...A LESS PROGRESSIVE
H5 TROF IS PREFERRED IN THE NWRN/N CNTRL CONUS THE SECOND HALF OF
THE PD COMPARED TO THE 00Z GFS.



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