His take on Irene was that the Carolina to NE need to stay tuned, but he did not discount the idea of Florida. What I see on the 12Z runs is that the GFS and NAM are pretty close in their solutions of sneaking Irene through a hole between a finger of a ridge from the Central Atlantic and a building ridge near the east coast at about hour 54 - 60. If that's going to happen Irene needs to get farther north during the next 2 days. In fact, this is so close that the GFS, if taken literally, has the high pressure center about 75 miles west of Irene (not too likely). The NAM has Irene slipping N and the high building to the SW of her. Very close call. IF Irene does not get as far north as the models show and gets under the building east coast ridge as SHOWN ON THE GFS, she will get blocked from moving northward as the high continues to build over the SE coast. I capped the GFS only because its what that model shows as far as ridging. The EC is near the east coast but further north and never touching land. That's JB and my own obs, Cheers!!