The HPC is the backup center for the NHC. If the NHC were for some reason unable to issue advisories on any given storm, the HPC would take over responsibility. From time to time, they will test the backup systems when there is a non-threatening storm out there, such as Irene is now, and that is likely what they have done this morning. NWS offices and all other branches of the government have a backup system in place....pretty smart if you ask me.

As for Irene...it's about where we thought it would be 5 days ago at this point, but the means to the end have been completely different. The intensity isn't there, the structure isn't there, and the steering flow pattern isn't there yet. There are signs the storm might turn back more towards the west with time...so we'll have to see how this one plays out. NHC track to 3 days and the overall intensity forecast look good; the 4 and 5 day track is probably a little too fast and too far north. A slow drift WNW-NW is more likely, IMO, at this point.

As for JB's update vs. TWC/others -- you'll never see any other media source go for anywhere near 13 minutes on a discussion. There's not that much to talk about out there, really. The potential is there for it to head back towards the west before curving up near the coast, while the potential is also there for it just to linger around the Atlantic for some time. No possibility can be discounted at this point. As myself and others have mentioned here, the factors and probabilities change all the time with these storms...but you can never discount anything until it happens.