Irene is looking a bit better organized, though the strongest convection is still displaced to the south of the surface circulation. The storm is currently located in some weaker convection to the north of that region, though the storm looks a lot like it did when it was reorganizing a few days ago with new centers developing -- so it remains to be seen whether or not the storm is trying to reorganize closer to the deeper convection. Shear is weakening across the storm, though it is still there from the west, so slow strengthening is not out of the question.

As for down the line...mentioned my thoughts in an earlier post...but the NHC intensity forecast looks good on this end, maybe bump it up a little bit from 12hr on out to 120hr to account for the current organization trends of the storm. Track still looks good, with a bit further west and slower at 3-5 days my current thiking. It, like Franklin, will probably slow down quite a bit near Bermuda as a trough passes it by to the north. What will happen from there is anyone's guess. Best guess is still for it to ultimately recurve out to sea, but there is still the threat of it making it past the trough. We'll watch this one through the rest of the week, no matter what happens, and should know more by Thursday or Friday. Unfortunately, it is one of those watch-and-wait storms...both track and intensity-wise.

If it becomes a threat to the US, it is at least a week away, making any forecasts towards that end uncertain at best. Everyone should be watching this one in case trends towards the west with this storm continue...or if the opposite happens and the model guidance trends back to sea.