Ron Basso
(Storm Tracker)
Tue Aug 09 2005 07:07 PM
Re: don't mean to be an alarmist...if I am..sorry

Quote:

I understand what you are saying and thanks for clarifying. As the disclaimer says on this site - always go with the word of the NHC and i do and they haven't really mentioned anything about Fla being under the gun. They keep mentioning Bermuda, in fact, Bermuda is on the strike possibility list. I do understand that things can change rather quickly overnight, so you are correct, there is a slight possibility that the storm could hit the east coast of fla.




Actually, Bermuda is out of the gunsights according to the latest NHC 5 PM track. It appears the NHC now thinks it may go west of the island. The fun of this site is perhaps beating the NHC to the punch, looking at trends, and using some knowledge of weather to justify your position. Yes, the BAM models have notoriously been bad, but for this system they've actually been the best. Noboby is saying it will hit the EC of FL, but the possibility is alot more than it was just 24 hrs ago. The analogy of Andrew was brought up earlier today by another poster - but it was in respect to the track. I think most METs would agree that this storm is no Andrew but then again, could it become a hurricane and threaten the EC of FL or the US - sure. Heck, we Floridians need to accept the fact that hurricanes will become a part of our lives. Dr Gray has been warning about the increase in storms now for over 10 years. Forget global warming, we are in a warm phase of the AMO that will likely lead to an above average storm seasons for another 10-20 years. Just look to the 1930-40s in FL (another AMO warm phase), u can barely see the outline of the peninsula when the storm tracks are overlaid.



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