berrywr
(Weather Analyst)
Wed Aug 10 2005 07:51 AM
Let's not get too ahead of ourselves!

Anything beyond 120 hours is simply speculation....If there is one thing I've learned it's you can't sit here and watch this thing in little increments, with every forecast in the future dependent among moment to moment events with a storm. Think about it? 5 days out! That's 20 advisories, 10 model runs and several recon missions and a few NOAA runs sampling the atmosphere ahead of the system. As this storm draws closer is when the atmosphere is sampled over and over for the littlest change; not 5 or 6 days out. Moderators need to pay heed to this too. You cannot moment to moment forecast 5 or 6 or 7 days out; you can't do it. There isn't enough upper air data out there to get a good fix on this, thus with each model run things change; currently the UKMET is the outlier with it's turn to the north at days 3, 4 and 5. That too will change. It always does!


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