As I just a moment ago posted...you can't moment to moment forecast, it's own thing to short term forecast or what they call NOW forecasting; it's another when it's current; that isn't forecasting; that's observing. NHC will not sample the atmosphere religiously until it gets within the 120 hour window, which I suspect will be sometime on late Wednesday beginning with the 00Z run on the 11th or maybe later. And once that data is inputted into the model runs, then a clearer picture will begin to reveal itself as to the future track. I also said this earlier, the evolution of the longwave pattern will play a role in this storms' future track and the strength of the ridge to it's NW and if anyone has ever read the extended forecast discussion; it's a headache when you look at the models and what they're telling you; this time it's a ridge or rex block over Alaska that will determine where this baby eventually goes; hard to believe that something so far away has those kinds of effects, but like squeezing a balloon, that's exactly what happens when you take into effect the downstream affects.